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Short-term Coordinative Dispatching and Risk Assessment for Hydropower Plants in Energy and AGC Market
Author(s): 
Pages: 1-4
Year: Issue:  4
Journal: HYDROPOWER AUTOMATION AND DAM MONITORING

Keyword:  电力市场水电厂联合调度风险评估风险价值;
Abstract: 准确评估因径流和电价的不确定性带来的风险,是水电厂在多市场联合调度中必须考虑的一个重要问题.由于对方差衡量风险的置疑,文中引入风险价值(VaR)作为风险测度指标,对水电厂在能量市场和自动发电控制(AGC)市场间的短期联合优化调度计划进行了电价和径流的联合风险评估.评估过程中考虑了不同市场电价间的相关性,针对电价和径流的概率分布未知的特点,用蒙特卡罗模拟法求解.评估结果可以作为发电商选择风险因子(权重因子)的参考,从而完善调度计划的制定过程.
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