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Prediction of Water Consumption of Coastal Cities Based on the Grey GM(1,1) Model —— Case Study of Dalian City
Pages: 47-51
Year: Issue:  2
Journal: Ocean Technology

Keyword:  GM(11) modelurban water consumptionseawater utilization;
Abstract: With socio-economic development, accurate prediction of urban water demands in the future plays a guiding role in formulating urban water resources planning and resolving future water crisis. Based on the water supply information of Dalian city from 2001 to 2008, the GM(1, 1) prediction model was established in line with the grey theory, and the model was examined through residual test and posterior variance test. The annual water demand of Dalian city was predicted utilizing this model. Combined with Dalian ’s geographical position and features and water resources utilization status, analysis was conducted on the guarantee situation of water resources quantity and the prospect of seawater utilization. The results indicate that within the coming decade, Dalian ’s water consumption will exceed its water supply capacity, leading to severe freshwater crisis. If measures were not taken to control water consumption, people’s normal livelihoods and productive activities would be affected. This paper recommends that on the basis of making the most of local water resources, policies be drawn up to greatly facilitate the development of seawater desalination and direct seawater utilization technologies, in order to achieve freshwater augmentation and optimization.
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