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Influencing Factor and Quantitative Estimate of the Negative Growth Phenomenon of Local Finance Revenue——Taking Liaoning Province as an Example
Author(s): 
Pages: 18-29
Year: Issue:  4
Journal: Finance & Trade Economics

Keyword:  Local Finance RevenueNegative GrowthARMA ModelQuantitative Estimate;
Abstract: As an important part of national finance,local fiscal revenue accounts for half of the national revenue since the tax sharing reform.It is also the important base of local governments discharging their functions and powers.In recent years,the "dividend" of high-speed growth of local fiscal revenue is diminishing with a change from double-digit growth to single digit growth.Negative growth of fiscal revenue even appears in some provinces such as Liaoning.This paper analyzes the influencing factor of the negative growth phenomenon and quantitatively estimates the degree of all kinds of relative factors based on Liaoning sample.The results show that the counterfeit fiscal revenue in 2014 is about 80 billion yuan;among all the influencing factors on negative fiscal revenue growth in 2015,the clearance of the counterfeit fiscal income is the main factor,followed by economic and policy factors.At last,this paper proposes some countermeasures and suggestions.
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