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zhi zao ye shang shi gong si cai wu yu jing ti xi de gou jian ji bi jiao ji yu shu ju wa jue ji shu
Author(s): 
Pages: 49-55
Year: Issue:  21
Journal: Finance and Accounting Monthly

Keyword:  财务预警因子分析Logistic回归决策树BP神经网络;
Abstract: 本文以2015年A股制造业上市公司为研究对象,选取反映企业偿债能力、经营能力等六个方面的27个指标构建预警指标体系,并运用T值显著性检验和因子分析法对预警指标进行约简。在此基础上,本文利用Logistic回归、决策树和BP神经网络分别构建财务预警模型,并对各个模型的优缺点及预测结果进行比较分析。研究结果表明:随着ST发生时间的临近,预警准确率总体呈上升趋势;从中长期来看,决策树和BP神经网络模型的预测能力优于Logistic回归模型;从短期来看,三种模型的预测能力没有显著差异。
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