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Downscaling Projection of Surface Wind Speed Variation over China’s Sea Areas
Pages: 10-16
Year: Issue:  6
Journal: Ocean Technology

Keyword:  sea surface windstatistic downscalingclimate modeCCMPGFDL-CM3;
Abstract: The statistical method of empirical orthogonal function and multiple linear regression is applied to investigate the long-term statistical relationship of typical spatial modes derived from the CCMP wind data and the historical experiment data of the GFDL-CM3 model, including sea surface wind, sea level pressure and sea surface temperature. Based on the long-term statistical relationship of typical spatial modes, this study has constructed a statistical downscaling model of surface wind speed over China’s sea areas and projected the prospective changes of sea surface wind speed from 2015 to 2050, by combining the RCPs output data of the GFDL-CM3 model. The results show that the constructed model is capable for downscaling simulation of sea surface wind speed. The correlation coefficient(R) of downscaling simulation and CCMP data is 0.98 for wind speed spatial pattern and 0.97 for wind speed variation trend, and the RMSE of monthly mean wind speed simulation is about 1.32 m/s. The downscaling estimations of sea surface wind speed indicate that there are three distinct phases of wind speed variation over China’s sea areas during the period from 2015 to 2050. Sea surface wind speed will decrease in the phase from 2015 to 2024, increase from 2024 to 2035, and decrease again from2035 to 2050. Though all sea zones have a similar trend of wind speed variation, their variation ranges are different. The variation range of wind speed is larger in the South China Sea, medium in the East China Sea, and relatively small in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea.
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