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Potential Effect Simulation of Carbon Trading in China
Author(s): 
Pages: 93-108
Year: Issue:  2
Journal: Finance & Trade Economics

Keyword:  Carbon TradingShadow PriceCarbon IntensityCopenhagen Conference;
Abstract: Taking provincial panel data of China as sample,this paper simulates and analyzes the potential effect of carbon emissions trading(carbon trading)in China under the condition of unconstrained and constrained national conditions respectively.The results are as follows:(1)As the theoretical basis of carbon trading,the shadow price of carbon dioxide is inclined to rise generally.The absolute gap between provinces and eight regions tends to increase,but the relative between provinces and eight regions tends to decrease.(2)Setting the reduction of national carbon intensity to the greatest degree as the aim,under the condition of the given national GDP,the effect of carbon trading can reduce carbon intensity by 20.06%.When the strict constraint of national GDP is relaxed,and the constraint of economic growth and environment conservation of each region is imposed,the effect of carbon trading can reduce carbon intensity by 22.20%.(4)General carbon intensity of China in 2012 completed the stage goal of the commitment made in Copenhagen Conference,and when introducing the provincial trade of carbon emissions,not only the reducing process of carbon intensity can be improved,but also the general requirements of the commitment made in Copenhagen Conference can be met.
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