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Analysis on the Influencing Factors and Development Trend of Shanghai Health Total Cost from 2001 to 2017
Author(s): 
Pages: 29-32
Year: Issue:  9
Journal: Health Economics Research

Keyword:  卫生总费用影响因素预测分析;
Abstract: 目的:分析和预测上海市卫生总费用的影响因素和发展趋势.方法:以人均卫生总费用为因变量,选取宏观环境、投入、过程、结果方面共12个指标为自变量,进行主成分分析及相关回归,并利用ARIMA模型预测上海市卫生总费用变化趋势.结果:人均生产总值、诊疗总人次、肿瘤死亡专率对人均卫生总费用有显著影响,医疗机构床位数与人均卫生总费用呈一定相关性;预计上海市卫生总费用将继续保持增长趋势,到2025年达到4480.98亿元.结论:上海市未来卫生总费用增长形势严峻,建议提高认识,加强对恶性肿瘤高风险人群的筛查和健康教育,革新公立医院管理发展思路,将卫生总费用的增长路径调整到合理趋势上来.
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